If you look at a Gaussian distribution of voting personalities, from liberal to conservative — and I’m talking personality, not political affiliation — the 80% starting from the conservative end of the spectrum are the ones who hang up on surveys. The 20% most liberal are the ones who talk to strangers (including pollsters) over the phone, who discuss their sex life with friends, who wear revealing clothes, who talk about personal finances and how much their possessions cost, who tell everyone how they feel about things, etc. As folk get more conservative, or we might say circumspect, they “hold their cards closer to the chest.”

There is a political correlation, not one to one, but significant. Those who have conservative mind-their-own-business personalities are much more likely to be conservative politically. So the 80% of voters who do not participate in polls are much more likely to be conservate, causing the polls to be skewed liberal.

Goodness! Perhaps I should make a post out of this!

So, I asked myself, “Who likely participates in polls?” I ask that because I know I don’t trust the polls, and I don’t accept unsolicited phone calls—Republican or Democrat—and I figure there must be other likeminded citizens out there. I imagine that a large number of those “refuse to responds” are folks who, just like me, simply say, “Please remove my phone number from your list” (after the dismaying revelation that the Federal “Do Not Call” Registry really doesn’t mean “Do Not Call”).

Back to the question, “Who likely participates in polls?” I believe those who are more likely to respond to these polls are folks who tend to trust them. And, as far as those who are more likely to trust the polls, I would guess they are those who see the polls as supporting their own personal choices.

Thus, even if that “80%” figure is greatly exaggerated—let’s imagine even half of that—that would still mean up to 60% of the called voting public has simply not weighed in via these polls, and those who have are probably those who trust the polls, which should be understood to be those supporting Democrats.

Another thought: of those who readily respond to polls, which of the two presidential candidates would participators likely refuse to state they are NOT supporting (Yes, I arrived at a positive via double negative)? Would it be Republicans who support Obama? What motivation would they have for that, seeing that the vast MSM’s propaganda machine would clearly laud them for backing whom they have decided is the runaway victor. Or, would it be the loyal, but disenfranchised, Democrat, who would rather not admit he’s backing the “other” party’s candidate?

This scenario also seems to add credence to a couple reports I’ve heard in the past few days about GOP internal polling showing McCain ahead in most states—even strongly Democratic states. One internal poll shows McCain ahead in strongly Democratic NJ and MI, and only behind by 1% in Pelosi’s CA!

Now, this looks more like the America I know and love.

Dean Haskins